Rex is in trouble

Jim Rex’s bid to become Governor is in trouble. Do not believe the spin coming from his campaign that a poor fundraising quarter and the lowest cash on hand among the major Democratic candidates is okay. There is something amiss in the Rex campaign. Several factors seemed to be ignored by Rex and his people.

First, running for a lower tier statewide office is nothing like running for a top tier statewide race. Democrat Inez Tennebaum and Republican Bob Peeler both appeared politically invincible at the lower tier in statewide offices. Yet, both their stars faded when they took on the higher lights of the top of the statewide ballot.

Tennenbaum and Peeler are not alone. Mike Daniel looked invincible as Lt. Governor until Carroll Campbell handed him his hat in 1986 in their battle for the Governor’s chair. Nick Theodore and his familiar “hey buddy” greeting to every voter was thought invincible until a former state representative named David Beasley beat him in 1994 for the Governor’s chair.

Frankly put, success at the statewide level in lower tier constitutional offices does not guarantee success for a higher tier job such as Governor. Such campaigns are different. It comes down to the classic political ideals of a ground war and air war.

In a lower tier office, like Superintendent of Education, a good ground war can carry the day. Politically, a good ground war is organization, putting up signs, and turning out your voters to actually vote down ballot. If you look at statewide ballots, thousands of South Carolinians leave the down ballot statewide races blank on their ballots or vote for the name that they can think of. That is where having a sign in the right place or having a neighbor urge his fellow neighbors makes a difference. Even letters to the editor to the local papers matter heavily. Internet posts matter. Just being known to the voters makes a difference.

In higher tier races, winning the ground war might help a bit, but the real battle is still in the air war. The air war is the television and internet ads that become readily available to the people who are paying more attention. That takes money. It takes money to buy ad time and produce ads that get attention during the time that is paid for. A candidate for Governor can show up at every hot dog supper in the state, but if he does not have the money to get his message out professionally over the airwaves, chances are he is done. The majority of voters who do not attend hot dog suppers and political meetings pay attention to higher tier races through the major media. The average voter who feels compelled to go and vote for someone for Governor is likely to be more influenced by the television ad he sees during the evening news than any contact he had with the candidate.

That is why Rex and his campaign seem in trouble. They are relatively broke. They do not see that running for a lower tier statewide office is nothing like running for Governor. Rex and his people seem content to run a ground war in an air war campaign. Perhaps Rex’s handlers have found that is all they can do. If so, fair enough. Whatever the reason, Jim Rex’s campaign for Governor of South Carolina seems to be over before it got started. Rex seems to be relegated now to the role of spoiler only. Again, if that is the role Rex wants, fair enough. However, if Rex and his people actually think he will be elected Governor, they are facing a June reality check.