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Thursday, January 28, 2010

Is SC GOP gubernatorial debate a preview of the primary?

Posted on 11:32 PM by Unknown

The Republican candidates for Governor debated Thursday night in Charleston. The debate got some national attention in that it was moderated by MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” co-hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski with an occasional assist from a local television figure.

As for as the debate, all seemed to walk out with what they wanted to do going in. The South Carolina Republican Party got some positive press while each of the four candidates seemed to be on message and avoided any major gaffes.

As the primary is five and half months away, this was still a preseason matchup. Yet, all four candidates seemed to have got their game faces on and out for display.

Congressman Gresham Barrett improved his performance greatly since the Newberry debate last year. Instead of dwelling on what a family man he is, Barrett talked about job creation and about cooperating with the legislature the way the late Carroll Campbell did. Barrett has changed his message and as such needs to be taken a bit more seriously than he was a few months ago. Barrett’s performance was refreshing.

Lt. Governor Andre Bauer’s performance gave insight into what his strategy is now. While Bauer emphasized his willingness to work, as he has in all his campaigns, he picked up the mantle of someone who wants to challenge the culture of failure and political correctness. Instead of running from his controversial remarks in Spartanburg last week, the Lt. Governor all but embraced them. That shows he is likely going to present himself as the guy with the guts to call it as he sees it in the primary campaign. Frankly, that makes him a dangerous contender. People are tired of candidates who run from problems, and could embrace the standup guy. Bauer is a proven winner and his strategy could very well work.

Rep. Nikki Haley’s performance was par for the course for her. She is clearly banking on the Sanford wing of the Republican Party backing her. Haley also seems inclined to join those who wish to purify the Republican Party of “RINOs.” Haley was the only candidate who did not want Dillon County to accept federal money to build new schools. She also repeated to the mantra of “conservative, not Republican.” Haley was strong in what she wanted to do, but had the weakest overall performance of the debate. She simply appeared to rehash the Sanford approach in her obvious attempt to secure support from Sanford supporters.

Attorney General McMaster, the frontrunner at this point, also had a par for the course performance. He sounded the general Republican issues and invoked Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment, “Thou shall not speak ill of another Republican,” when pressed by the moderators to choose between Lindsey Graham and Jim DeMint. McMaster invoked his professed love of South Carolina and the Republican Party and debated as if it were a General Election debate. McMaster had the appearance of a man who was above it all, and with his numbers, that is the smart thing to do. But, will those numbers hold?

Indeed, from the candidates’ remarks, their campaigns seem to shaping up. Haley and Bauer seem to be aiming for the more libertarian part of the Republican Party and McMaster and Barrett seem to aiming towards the more traditional Republicans who want their candidates conservative, but seasoned and willing to work with others.

With the polling numbers as they are, Barrett’s move is the most surprising. Haley and Bauer seem to be going after the tea party element to secure a place in the runoff against McMaster. Barrett is rolling the dice, going for the frontrunner position himself. If the debate had been held in May instead of January, Barrett’s performance could have been a game changer. VUI thinks Barrett won the debate and his line, “it’s your question, but my answer,” to an interrupting Scarborough was the most memorable line of the night.

That said, the other three candidates got what they wanted to accomplish, and their staffers have plenty of ammunition to spin on their behalf. It was a preseason affair. There is a lot of politics left in this primary race. However, if Thursday’s debate is indicative of the strategies and capabilities of the four candidates, South Carolina Republicans are in for an interesting contest for Governor.
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