McMaster campaign looking for the knockout

Mark Sanford’s victory this week in regards to the SC House Subcommittee voting against impeachment was a bigger victory for Attorney General Henry McMaster. Not only did the subcommittee’s decision keep Lt. Governor Andre Bauer from having the elevated status as a sitting Governor in the 2010 election, it gave Attorney General McMaster a way out of the Sanford mess in regards to criminal activity. If the SC House, whose members seem to loathe Sanford, found no cause for impeachment, Attorney General McMaster is on safe grounds in finding no criminal activity and moving on.

Such is welcomed news for the frontrunner McMaster and his people. As it stands, McMaster has a fairly large lead over Lt. Governor Bauer and Congressman Gresham Barrett and the assorted other candidates. Privately, McMaster supporters are talking about how they want a first round knockout for the nomination and not go “Theodore.” Going “Theodore” is a reference to Democrat Nick Theodore in 1994. Theodore was a popular Lt. Governor and heavy favorite not only for his party’s nomination but for the Governorship. Theodore barely fell under the fifty percent plus one rule in South Carolina party primaries. What followed was a bruising runoff against Charleston Mayor Joe Riley. Theodore won the nomination but was wounded for the fall campaign.

The hopes of a first round knockout by McMaster are not unfounded. McMaster enjoys a double digit lead in nearly every poll conducted. Further, McMaster has far greater name identification than any of his opponents. South Carolinians like the guy. The wildcard in the primary was and remains Lt. Governor Andre Bauer.

If Sanford had been tossed from office, a sitting Governor Bauer would have made things interesting. Now, Bauer and Barrett face the challenge of creating an interesting primary race against a frontrunner that seems in control. McMaster is handled by Quinn and Associates, old hands at politics in South Carolina. As such, a grave mistake by the McMaster campaign is not to be expected. Instead, Bauer will have to gain traction on his own and make a dent in the race for it not to be over before it starts.

Barrett supporters might cry out, but frankly, though Barrett is a good and decent man, only Bauer has the statewide appeal that could throw the gubernatorial primary into a runoff. Barrett could finish ahead of Bauer and face McMaster in a runoff, but if Bauer does not get traction, McMaster is likely to get the nomination in the first round.

If McMaster fails to win on primary night, watch out. Runoffs are crazy events. Lt. Governor Bauer proved his mettle in a runoff in 2006 when he defeated favorite Mike Campbell. Though they would never publically admit such, you can bet McMaster’s people do not want to face Bauer in a runoff. That is why VUI believes that McMaster will spend the next few months going for the first round knockout of his primary opponents.

The Democrats McMaster, or some other nominee will face, will be addressed in a later post. The Democrats have an old fashioned brawl about to happen for their gubernatorial nomination. But, for now, watch for McMaster to try to deliver the knockout punch.